Any Concerns With Chinese Pen Orders In Light Of Coronovirus?

[Mech-for-i]

Yesterday its China alone 2590 new cases and today its 2829. ( these are confirmed cases which mean while they are reported now they are definitely days old already ) and yes if we take statistical data the virus is less virulent and less lethal but only from an academic pov .. 10% of 1 million is still less than 2% of 10 million .. its that kind of math now

 

This is far more serious because its now fully spread to multiple locale ( SARS actually is contained in a restricted amount of locale far less that the current one ) - its more virulent not in numbers but in how it spread where SARS carrier would spread the virus only after the person develop symptoms and easily can be identified and isolated ; this virus start to spread right from the moment carrier person contract the virus and the gestation period of the virus can be as little as a day to much as 14 days before the person become ill and the person had no sign of any illness during the period but already are spreading the virus. And not all develop illness in the end. And so far no definite treatment avialable.

 

Then of course the far more developed and mobile nature of the population and coupled this with the 2 greatest human exodus annually X'mas & Lunar new Year ; guess where unsuspecting carrier personnel going ...

 

Give you guys a grim truth - at ground zero Wuhen its now reported and confirmed authority had to enforce cremation of bodies as soon as the deceased can be processed through the facilities and all 11 facilities in the city now run extra fast setting to process the bodies 24 hours non stop. 2 of the hospital there require outside assistance in crew replacement since more than 80% of their staff are themselves infected. And situation is similar in towns and cities in the same region to certain different degree. Since its not even possible to diagnose and confirm cases and death fast enough. ( grossly not enough ) many cases. and death or even healed cases are just recorded as common pneumonia and even more that do not even go into record. Several cities and towns in China is now not only in lockdown they are in strict curfew. There are other even grimmer but I do not think its appropiate to keep this on.

 

The number of confirmed cases world wide is 14.36K yesterday and today at this moment its 17.37K and do not trust in your black light too much cause the route of transmission is primary human to human contact ; air borne and water borne. Its not handling that fountain pen you ordered from China so that part well jusy do not over react

Edited February 3, 2020 by Mech-for-i

[Karmachanic]

Event 201 was a nCoV pandemic simulation held October 2019. Serious stuff.

Edited February 3, 2020 by Karmachanic

[Lam1]

 

~ corniche:

 

Thank you for your kind wishes.

It may be that living in this unsettled situation clouds one's judgment.

At my age errors in judgment are a daily occurrence.

Intending no more than to illustrate the local intensity of ongoing events, if I strayed from the thread's concerns about receiving a shipment in the USA from mainland China, I apologize.

Within the confines of this country it isn't often possible to have a clear perspective on events overseas.

I hope that other posts in this thread have been satisfactory.

Tom K.

 

 

Tom,

 

There were no errors in judgement from your part.

 

The thread has long deviated from the OP, including with some rude posts that show insensitivity to other people's situation.

 

It is is important to know the ongoing situation on the ground in China, which yours and Mech-for-i's posts illustrate so vividly and in different ways. Thank you both for the updates.

 

My best wishes for the safety of both of you, and everybody else in the affected region.

[Mech-for-i]

Thanks for all you guys kind gesture now to stay on the topic and some good news ( if it could be call so )

 

I had further communique with online retailer and shipping agent today and can report that there is already enforced procedure to disinfect all packages in fright big or small ; international or domestic this is on all shipping / logistic channel.

 

So anything not already in fright or about to get ship out pending end of Lunar New Year holiday will go through that

[Tom Kellie]

Tom,

 

There were no errors in judgement from your part.

 

The thread has long deviated from the OP, including with some rude posts that show insensitivity to other people's situation.

 

It is is important to know the ongoing situation on the ground in China, which yours and Mech-for-i's posts illustrate so vividly and in different ways. Thank you both for the updates.

 

My best wishes for the safety of both of you, and everybody else in the affected region.

 

~ Lam1:

 

Thank you very much, my friend.

The ongoing situation here remains unsettled.

One is seldom certain of what's most appropriate to post.

The support, care and encouragement of FPN friends is especially meaningful.

Tom K.

[Tom Kellie]

Thanks for all you guys kind gesture now to stay on the topic and some good news ( if it could be call so )

 

I had further communique with online retailer and shipping agent today and can report that there is already enforced procedure to disinfect all packages in fright big or small ; international or domestic this is on all shipping / logistic channel.

 

So anything not already in fright or about to get ship out pending end of Lunar New Year holiday will go through that

 

~ Mech-for-i:

 

Thank you for sharing such positive news.

That may reassure those who have ordered fountain pens or inks from this area.

Tom K.

[bogiesan]

I am far more concerned with the bugs that come home from elementary and day care with my niece's grandchildren on a daily basis.

Edited February 10, 2020 by bogiesan

[Astronymus]

I read the corona virus can survive on a steel surface at room temperature for nine days. So, take good care of your nibs.

[praxim]

I read the corona virus can survive on a steel surface at room temperature for nine days. So, take good care of your nibs.

 

Like other coronaviruses of a similar nature, from SARS-CoV through n-CoV to the common cold.

 

Information about persistence on different surfaces and effective cleaning treatments (not oriented to pens!) can be found in this paper.

 

Be careful reading comparative persistence times. Firstly, bugs die progressively (reducing risk) not all at the last moment. Secondly, the table does not necessarily have information about the same bug on two given surfaces. Thirdly, temperature and humidity affect persistence.

 

Regarding cleaning, note exposure times for effects. It may not be a matter of wipe and forget. Many "disinfecting wipes" contain benzalkonium chloride which is less effective than ethanol or hydrogen peroxide for this purpose.

[oldoaktree]

Feb. 11, 2020, excerpt from CDC; ref. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/php/risk-assessment.html

 

"Current knowledge on how 2019-nCoV spreads is based on what is known about early 2019-nCoV cases and what is known about similar coronaviruses. Most often, spread from person-to-person happens during close exposure to a person infected with 2019-nCoV. Person-to-person spread is thought to occur mainly via respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs, similar to how influenza viruses and other respiratory pathogens spread. These droplets can land in the mouths, noses, or eyes of people who are nearby or possibly be inhaled into the lungs. It is currently unclear if a person can get 2019-nCoV by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes."

Edited February 12, 2020 by oldoaktree

[praxim]

I think people may be taking ordinary precautions for some time. There is no reason for COVID-19 (as it is now named) to vanish so either we develop immunity naturally, or through a vaccine which may be 6-18 months away. Total containment measures will not continue, and currently there is no immunity in most of the world, so spread will continue and the death rate, although low compared with SARS for example, is high enough to be a significant concern quite apart from lost production through illnesses.

 

I see today that China has revised its classifications, with both infections and deaths proportionally jumping as a result.

[Mech-for-i]

Sadly China is enforcing work to resume in production and manufacturing .. I dearly would rather like them to stay put and curb the spread instead of forcing it forth , a delay of our pen is more than well worth the lifes that can be saved

[txomsy]

...the lifes that can be saved

 

That's the crux of it. How many Chinese lives will be lost if production is not resumed?

 

Last time I went to China, people still ate there. So, either we all the rest pay their bills to compensate for our safety or it would be too selfish to ask them to sacrifice and die to protect us.

 

Personally, I can understand (one may like it or not) that their Government calls workers back to work to avoid a much higher death toll from starvation, lack of power (remember it is winter there too), lack of medicines, supplies, etc... for staying home.

 

We may not like it. But, as I said, either we share our goods or they share their bads. We are all in the same boat, er, planet.

 

And note that they are not asking us to. We can only praise the Chinese people in this situation.

 

As I said, one may like it or not. But consider this: ~500 million people in the World are not quarantined despite malaria. They have to live with it, like it or not. And if it weren't for Geography, all the rest would be in the same situation.

Edited February 13, 2020 by txomsy

[DrDebG]

Deleted link.

 

See below for content

Edited February 14, 2020 by 5Cavaliers

[inkstainedruth]

I wasn't able to access the link you provided, 5Cavaliers. I got a popup wanting me to agree to cookies and to have my personal information provided to advertisers....

So you'll have to give us the "Cliff Notes" version of what the article says.

Ruth Morrisson aka inkstainedruth

[praxim]

Ruth, the popup should include "Options" where you "Reject All", save and exit. You will then see the full article and, if they are conforming with law, not receive "tailored advertising for a better experience".

 

The article says that people who are confined in quarantine are having fixed price meals brought. Not everyone is confined to their home, as is evident from first hand reports about few people being around at shops, something one would not know unless they went there.

[DrDebG]

I wasn't able to access the link you provided, 5Cavaliers. I got a popup wanting me to agree to cookies and to have my personal information provided to advertisers....

So you'll have to give us the "Cliff Notes" version of what the article says.

Ruth Morrisson aka inkstainedruth

 

I apologize. Tom Kellie emailed me this article this morning. I have removed the link because of the garbage associated with it.

 

What Praxim said above is part of the article. Some cities are issuing severe lockdowns similar to "wartime". This is in the hope of containing the virus.

 

The other part relates to the methodology used to determine if a person is infected or not. Prior to yesterday, they were using an RNA swab test which identifies the viral genetic information. Now, when a person has a fever or other symptoms, the doctor will order a CT scan which will identify, according to the article, cases faster. As a result of the two tests being used, the number of new cases reported jumped from a little over 2000 to well over 14,000.

 

I have heard much of the same from Reuters.

Edited February 14, 2020 by 5Cavaliers

[Bibliophage]

What I've read from some reasonably well respected virologists is that they're looking at this as being closer to a very bad cold virus than SARS. (Common Cold is a set of coronavirii) That's good on a global scale, but doesn't help matters much while they try to figure out true epidemiology in a communist state where whistleblowers often end up dead.

[Mech-for-i]

Its death rate is though increasing day to day figure on the ground in China ; and the cases of that Cruise Ship Diamond Princess in Japan pretty much tell how infectious that virus can be ( there is already 355 confirmed among 3700+ total crew+ passenger and not all test done ) , certainly also due to its nature of being new and most do not have anti-body , common cold do kill but the death rate is way lower ( more like in the 0.0X% to 0.00X% range depending ), small community spread is both here ( Hong Kong ) , Thailand, South Korea, Japan ( but their recent cases shown real sign of more ) and in Singapore but overall contained ... The situation on the ground still severe , very severe in fact for those in China .. the new test using CT scan is only a first step detection but still need confirmation utilizing the old method so those number are in the suspicious cases list ( and many after test do show negative ) but its a better screening mean.

 

Now back to the topic ... since mid week I start to get message from supplier in China ; many freight operations are resuming though in a much slower pace and priority given to medical and life supply ( understandable ) , so expect your order to slowly get into the chain

Edited February 16, 2020 by Mech-for-i

[Addertooth]

It shall be interesting how kind historians are to our current concerns. Keep in mind that in 2018 (the last year where full analysis has been done), there were over 62000 world-wide deaths from Influenza (flu).

I see historians writing one of two story lines....

 

Historical view one: People over-responded to the threat of an illness which resulted in fewer deaths than from the more common flu. Concerns caused unreasonable stock market pertubations from over-blown fears, and resulted in draconian measures to stem the spread of a disease which proved less deadly than the flu. Entire cities were quarantined and cruise ships were unable to find a harbor which would allow the release of passengers. Someone cried "Wolf" and everyone huddled in their Brick houses. It seemed Fear was more contagious than the disease itself.

 

or...

 

Historical view two: In a desire to avoid having their status as a key supply chain affected, China initially downplayed the numbers to avoid more significant impact on their key markets. Workers in China were encouraged to return to their factories, which led to an accelerated spread of the disease. While initial concerns were downplayed that is was "no more deadly than the common flu", the world at large failed to recognize the severity of the threat until it was a global pandemic. U.N. resolution H-45354 was passed in response, which granted them the right to directly investigate any potential pandemic at the source, without approval of the local government in future outbreaks.

Edited February 16, 2020 by Addertooth