E-bay bidding question

[tcheuchter]

I have always heard that with an auction, YOU, the buyer sets the final price. But remember, if you win, and therefore pay the highest price you also paid more than anyone else thought it was worth <g>.

Or paid more than anyone else could AFFORD.

 

[tcheuchter]

So are you saying that something exists to help out people connected at 16 kbps ?

LOL... that is actually what I am connected at... funny in one way.... but NOT REALLY... LOLOL

I feel for you mate. Might as well raise your hand at the auction at that speed. :ltcapd:

[Deirdre]

I have always heard that with an auction, YOU, the buyer sets the final price. But remember, if you win, and therefore pay the highest price you also paid more than anyone else thought it was worth <g>.

Or paid more than anyone else could AFFORD.

Or, equally likely, they had other items they preferred and wanted to spend their money on those. There's been more than one auction I've bowed out that was a good deal simply because I wanted something else more.

[AndyHayes]

Favourite is Snip www.snip.pl

 

10p/20 cents per winning bid. No charge for losing bids. It has only ever dropped the ball once on me and that was probably down to server load at electronicBay.

 

I went from rarely winning anything to almost always winning, unless of course the item went for much more than I was willing to pay in which case I was happy to let it go. I decide on a price an stick to it. I never sell on eBay. I only buy. I prefer Buy it Now, but when that is not an option sniping is my best friend.

[jmkeuning]

I use esnipe. And it is certainly not rubbish.

 

Imagine there is only one other bidder, who has bid $10 on a pen. Imagine this buyer will pay up to $20, but has only put in the bid for $10. I can put in my $15 max, but as soon as the other bidder sees it, she will out bid me. However, if I snipe, the initial $10 bid will stand and I'll win for $11 (or whatever the increment).

 

Now, if my opposition bid by proxy, and put in her $20 max, then my snipe will not work.

 

But saying that sniping does not work, well, that's rubbish.

[finalidid]

I use esnipe. And it is certainly not rubbish.

 

Imagine there is only one other bidder, who has bid $10 on a pen. Imagine this buyer will pay up to $20, but has only put in the bid for $10. I can put in my $15 max, but as soon as the other bidder sees it, she will out bid me. However, if I snipe, the initial $10 bid will stand and I'll win for $11 (or whatever the increment).

 

Now, if my opposition bid by proxy, and put in her $20 max, then my snipe will not work.

 

But saying that sniping does not work, well, that's rubbish.

 

 

I still don't get it.

 

OK, the scenario. A pen is available. I am WILLING to pay $20. The opponent is WILLING to pay $15. The term "WILLING" means, that's our personal maximum at the outset. We assess the item, look at the dings and scratches, decide.

 

According to you, JMKeuning, if we both put in our bid-by-proxy in "plain" (non-sniping) fashion, something won't work. To me, I think I'd get the item for $16. (The EBay increment at that level is $1?)

 

You're describing a situation in which BOTH participants (me and the opponent) are both sniping. So, say he has a sniping program that puts in a $10 bid and I have one that therefore hits $11. His sniper increments up to $15, mine up as far as $20. But it never gets to $20, it stops at $16 when nobody outbids it. Again, I get the item for $16.

 

Exactly the same result. Mine for $1 more than his maximum, because my maximum is higher than his. Either by snipe or by plain, same result.

 

I think what you're saying is, that if I am sniping and he isn't, then I can "fool" him into bidding poorly. He bids $10, I get it for $11. But if he isn't sniping, why wouldn't he put in his personal maximum of $15? If he's put in $10, then his personal maximum isn't $15, but rather $10. Whatever it is, in all scenarios I win the item at $1 more than his personal entered maximum.

 

I don't get it. "Sniping does not work" isn't what I'm saying. That might or might not be rubbish, I don't care. What I notice, and am asking about, is that there seems to be no REASON for me to use it. I GET NO BENEFIT because in all situations I will simply either (A.) win the item at a price lower than or equal to my maximum or (B.) not win the item because the price is higher than my maximum. It doesn't require a sniping program to distinguish between (A.) and (B.) there. What's the benefit of sniping for me?

 

What I THINK people wrongly believe about sniping, is that it somehow gives them an advantage because their price will "definitely" be lower. It won't. To snipe and yet use a program which has a maximum set limit, is simply to take the reins away from the EBay proxy-bidding software and put EXACTLY THE SAME REINS into the hands of the Sniping program's proxy-bidding software. Aside from some internet clogging that might prevent the sniping from working (which quite frankly seems to me like a detriment not a benefit) THERE WILL BE LITERALLY NO DIFFERENCE IN PRICE.

 

The math turns out the same, as long as the computer connections don't break. Therefore there is no benefit to sniping, and the potential detriment is that the computer connections are mildly more likely to malfunction.

 

I can see one benefit to sniping: not letting other people "know" your personal maximum. However, I don't let them know. I offer my bid to the EBay system, which only indicates it IF THE PRICE EXCEEDS IT. In which case, it's beside the point. Again, the math is the same, and the ultimate result (either at or below my price; or not mine) is the same.

 

If someone can explain the math differently, or point out some misconception that I have, please do. So far all we've got is examples which claim "benefit" where no change has happened. "Well, I won the item at a price I wanted" doesn't prove sniping works, since that's a result identical to non-sniping.

Edited January 28, 2008 by finalidid

[Deirdre]

The real point is "at the outset." See, if you snipe (and everyone else does as well), at the outset remains the case throughout the course of the auction. Instead, people's behavior changes as they see what other people are willing (or not willing) to bid.

 

[jmkeuning]

You're describing a situation in which BOTH participants (me and the opponent) are both sniping.

 

 

No. . . Only I am sniping.

[finalidid]

I must just be kinda slow about math or sumpin ...

 

[AndyHayes]

Ah but even if you win you can lose!!

 

I sniped a wireless mouse for about £2 (US$4) because the only other bidder put in a really low bid. The seller was obviously really annoyed and took 3 weeks to send it. I had paid for signed for next day postage on top of the £2, but he sent it by normal post with insufficient postage. So the Post Office wouldn't deliver it before I paid a fine. I asked the seller for a refund, but he wouldn't give me one so I left a neg. He left a retaliatory neg.

 

I have given up leaving feedback after leaving positive feedback for a seller recently who then obviously lost the plot as I had said that he was slow with feedback so he left me a neg!!

 

Thankfully I don't sell on eBay!

[tfwall]

I must just be kinda slow about math or sumpin ...

No, in the example above you're willing to pay $15 at the outset and enter that in as your snipe. The other guy has bid $10, but if given the chance to think about it, would be willing to pay $20. Your snipe at 3 seconds before close never allows him the time to think about it, so you win it for $11.

 

I am the "other guy" occasionally. I bid some amount and get outbid later and end up deciding I want it enough to bid another xxx dollars and win it ultimately. Sniping defeats me, because it looks like I'm winning right up until a few seconds before the auction closes. I miss out on the item because I didn't initially convince myself I was willing to pay xxx for it.

[Romeo Dog]

But blessed is the man who expects nothing, for he shall never be disappointed.

[finalidid]

Chemyst:

 

Your description of a "hesitant bidder" is something which sniping would overcome. Someone who initially thinks his personal maximum is (for example) $10, who then sees a lot of people get involved above the $10 limit so his maximum turns out not to be so maximal after all, and he makes another bid above his personal maximum at, say, $15. If my maximum has always been $20, then by sniping I save the difference between $11 (a win by sniping against his $10) and $16 (a win by plain non-sniping bidding against his $15). In any instance when you're bidding against someone like that, and his "second maximum" falls between his "first maximum" and your own sniping maximum, well then, sniping would be helpful.

 

I just don't think of "winning" items at EBay. I'm buying. Either I buy at a price I like, or I don't buy.

 

In addition, the sniper in that scenario has gained nothing psychological, as long as his personal maximum doesn't change. He either wins the item at a price below his personal maximum because the other bidders all had maximum bids lower than his; or he wins the item at a price below his personal maximum by gaining the item through sniping, thus preventing other bidders (whose maximum bids may or may not be higher than his) from delivering later bids. In the former instance, he wins at a point one increment higher than the next highest bidder's initial maximum; in the latter instance, he wins at a point one increment higher than the next highest bidder's LAST maximum. The benefit to the winner, for entering into a sniping arrangement, is the dollar difference between the competitor's initial maximum and his last maximum. Any change to the initial to provide a last is prevented by sniping, such that initial must be final. This indeed is a dollar gain for the winner and a point in favor of sniping. But it's no psychological gain. The winner gains the item within his personal maximum range, either way.

 

Golly. Took me long enough, no?

 

In other words, in both scenarios, I get the item at a price below my personal maximum. One difference is how annoyed the other person is. Either he's saying, "Hey, I didn't get a chance to up my maximum" because I out-sniped him; or he's saying, "Boy, that other guy was willing to pay more than me" because I out-bid him. Either way, I get the thing. Another difference is the price I pay -- either a "non frenzied" price, one increment above a "sane" competitor's maximum; or a "frenzied" price, one increment above a "frenzied" competitor's maximum. Sniping prevents others from getting frenzied ... or, more accurately, from letting their frenzy influence my cost.

 

Of course, further problems arise when you start recognizing MY OWN potential for entering into a bidding frenzy, in which I up my personal maximum because of psychological factors associated with seeing something which I had considered "my own" turn out to "get lost" to someone with a higher bid. That's weak human decision making. I try not to include that type of mistake into my bid making. It really matters little if others do; as demonstrated above, their actions are moot as long as I'm initially honest about my initial maximum.

 

Edited January 28, 2008 by finalidid

[Deirdre]

Of course, further problems arise when you start recognizing MY OWN potential for entering into a bidding frenzy, in which I up my personal maximum because of psychological factors associated with seeing something which I had considered "my own" turn out to "get lost" to someone with a higher bid. That's weak human decision making. I try not to include that type of mistake into my bid making. It really matters little if others do; as demonstrated above, their actions are moot as long as I'm initially honest about my initial maximum.

Nearly all the multiple bid auctions I've seen lately, both as a buyer and as a seller, seem to be by people who get into bidding frenzies. As a seller, I truly do not mind this. As a buyer, it annoys me.

 

I'm watching the last thirty seconds of a few auctions right now....

[Ghost Plane]

Me, I bid, then walk away. If research later shows I should adjust it higher, I do so. Still have too many pens, so something's working... :hmm1:

[gregkoos]

I just use my usual low ball program - bid the lowest I'm willing to pay and if somebody wants it more than that - great! I just saved $10. Look at the historic production figures of the big manufactures. There are lots of pens out there.

[Bill_D]

I always seem to bid my limit because in the last few seconds before the auction ends, I am nervous that I will lose, but I am also a little nervous that I will win at my max price.

[david i]

Oy vey.

 

After ten years beating this subject to death, it still arises as if new and charming.

 

On other hand, one of the charms of our hobby is that always there are new and curious folks diving into the core debates. That is a good thing.

 

Look. The answer is that sniping is the best strategy for bidding on ebay. That simply is the answer. We can stop here. You now know the truth. Nothing more to say.

 

Oh, but you wonder why is sniping the best strategy. You wonder how someone has the chutzpa to declare something best, even after all the sturm und drang here regarding this issue.

 

Recognizing that anecdote is not proof, i note that my perspective on this stems from having won a couple thousand vintage pens on ebay, from having observed probably 20 if not more auctions that i did not win for each i have won , and from having immersed myself in this charming discussion probably 50 times during the last ten years.

 

OK. So... let's try to make it easy. I'll not wade in with yea/nay commentary on the various above writers. Rather, I'll toss out some discrete notions. If they make sense unto themselves to the reader, perhaps the logic of sniping will emerge without explicit statement, though i shall give that anyway if needed...

 

----------

 

In the real world many bidders do not fire a single bid that represents their would-be "maximum". It does not matter if we think they should do so. They don't.

 

In the real world many bidders do not have a clear, FPN-defined (yeep!) sense of what "maximum" even means, as demonstrated by the oft heard (in such debates in general about sniping), "i would've changed my maximum if i'd seen someone else bidding higher", or "i might increase my maximum if i get caught up in the auction".

 

The above two points lead to a third point, that psychology of bidding has impact on auctions, making outcome different from what might be guessed based on simple monday morning quarterbacking a closed auction as to the value of what sold there. Bidding strategies that recognize the presence of auction psychology amongst the bidding herd, will lead to advantageous position.

 

It is true that for the simple bid conflict in which a lower and higher bid are entered- let's imagine single bids by two educated bidders- the higher bid will trump the lower independent of timing of auction. Happily this truth has no bearing on the general advantage conveyed by sniping, any more than an observation of another truth- say that the sky is blue on sunny days- has impact on the general advantage of sniping. Not all true things carry relevance. Sometimes folks get caught up too much on whether something is true instead of whether or not that true thing matters.

 

In game theory- not that i know much of the formalisms involved- generally no strategy conveys advantage in all situations. That an approach carries advantage in just... some... situations does not invalidate that strategy.

 

Furthermore, if (yay!) a strategy conveys advantage in some situations whilst conveying NO disadvantage (or remarkably trivial relative disadvantage) in any of the situations besides the some in which advantage is conveyed, then there is no smart reason not to employ that strategy all the time.

 

This discussion should have nothing to do with notions of "well, i just bid my maximum early on and let the chips fall where they may, no harm no foul if someone wants it more". The discussion of the possible advantage to sniping has to do with maximizing the chance that bid will win, independent of whether someone else wants the item more.

 

 

If i need to translate the above principles into examples and percentages, i will. But, i hope the above makes the answer obvious.

 

regards

 

david

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Rapt]

I have to day I agree with David on this one...

 

The simple reason is people in general buy on ebay to get the CHEAPEST POSSIBLE PRICE... that is the main motivation of Ebay buyers. They don't want to pay the MAXIMUM they're willing to pay, but the MINIMUM they can get away with.

 

[coolpenz]

I think sniping definitely has its place; I've won a fair number of auctions doing it, but at the same time have probably won the same number by entering my "real" max, not my "might bump it later on" max and letting it ride. So for me it's a toss-up.

Of course, when I get sniped on something I really want, it's a whole different story....(smile)