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London Spring Pen Show March 8Th


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57 replies to this topic

#21 Beechwood

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Posted 01 March 2020 - 17:43

Me too.  If I go down with something after attending then you can do a 'told you so' :D

 

BTW the real reason you should not, and they do not want you to, visit the doctors if you are ill is two fold.  First you may infect others there, second, many in the waiting room will already be weaker and so more susceptible to your bugs and likely to be less resilient to their effects.

 

 

If you go down with something she will have to to you 'I told you so' through a Medium.

 

 

...and thats not a nib size.


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#22 sansenri

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Posted 01 March 2020 - 18:23

Panic and paranoia ?  When normal flu is far deadlier and just as contagious.  It's the uncertainty and the press coverage that makes people worry.

 

OK you could argue that the last time there was something like this or SARS which was ignored was the Spanish Flu in 1918/9 and that was horrendous, but modern medical knowledge and far greater levels of hygiene.

 

With doctors - you should never visit one if you've potentially got a contagious illness, and people do ignore this.  Also patients tend to be more susceptible and also weaker (as are the elderly and really young), so that does make sense.

 

Schools only makes a certain amount of sense with really young kids - but then, to be blunt, why close because a teacher or pupil potentially has coronavirus, when they no longer seem to do if there is a case of meningitis, which is far, far deadlier and also highly contagious.

Just a few things that do not seem quite to correspond when you say that "normal flu is far deadlier and just as contagious":
 

It's very difficult to calculate at the moment, however according to the statistics from China the fatality rate (death rate of diagnosed affected people, not mortality over the whole population) is approx 0,5% while that of flu is approx 0,1%.
moreover Covid-19 is more contagious, at least twice as much (R0 around 2-3, while normal flu is around 1,3).

 

This data is clearly not accurate, may vary depending on source, and could change with time.



#23 sandy101

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Posted 01 March 2020 - 18:25

Better to get Covid-19 now, before the health services are rammed, rather than later. 

 

The only reservation I have is a lunch-time one.



#24 dapprman

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Posted 01 March 2020 - 18:29

Just a few things that do not seem quite to correspond when you say that "normal flu is far deadlier and just as contagious":
 

It's very difficult to calculate at the moment, however according to the statistics from China the fatality rate (death rate of diagnosed affected people, not mortality over the whole population) is approx 0,5% while that of flu is approx 0,1%.
moreover Covid-19 is more contagious, at least twice as much (R0 around 2-3, while normal flu is around 1,3).

 

This data is clearly not accurate, may vary depending on source, and could change with time.

Chinese data may be suspect but South Korean, Japanese and Italian is not.  Death rate is minuscule - already a lot of official data from more trust worthy countries on line.  It was the same for SARS.



#25 sansenri

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Posted 01 March 2020 - 21:42

Better to get Covid-19 now, before the health services are rammed, rather than later. 

 

The only reservation I have is a lunch-time one.

This may be true. Not only, once you're done you should be among the few to stop worrying...

When I was a young child one of my sisters got scarlet fever, my mother put us all in the same bed so we all got it, and that was that...


Edited by sansenri, 01 March 2020 - 21:42.


#26 sansenri

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Posted 01 March 2020 - 21:49

Chinese data may be suspect but South Korean, Japanese and Italian is not.  Death rate is minuscule - already a lot of official data from more trust worthy countries on line.  It was the same for SARS.

It's still early to interpret data from countries where it's still spreading, but do hope you are right.



#27 Parkette

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Posted 03 March 2020 - 07:22

Later today there will be a UK Government announcement on containment measures for the virus. The measures may include restrictions on non essential travel and public gatherings.

 

We havent seen any comments from the organisers or  The Writing Equipment Society on any change of plans for  the London Pen Show,  it would be useful to hear of the  proposed containment measures for the Show.



#28 sandy101

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Posted 03 March 2020 - 09:44

The governmet advice is to wash hands hourly - iusing warm water and soap and use tissues at the moment.

 

Not much else. 

 

Now, what advice do they ive to deal with the Fountain pen bug. 



#29 Eoghan2009

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Posted 03 March 2020 - 09:55

Remember swineflu and avian flu - didnt really come to anything.  Standard flu killed 62,000 in the US though so if you have to worry about something worry about this years influenza!



#30 Karmachanic

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Posted 03 March 2020 - 14:57

 

 

You are going to feel a bit of a chump if you are wrong!

 

As has been said above, local schools are closed, hand sanitizer is sold out of most shops, surgical masks are impossible to find. the above poster has used  the word paranoia which normally means an irrational fear, I havent seen any firm evidence that the fear of dying due to Covid 19 is irrational.

 

I hope you are right dapprman and that you have a healthy and successful show.

There are no instances of children contracting this virus.

Whilst hand washing/sanitizing is a good idea, it offers no protection from airborne pathogens. Nitrile gloves, and thorough hand washing is best.

Surgical masks are worse than useless as a prophylactic, as it lulls one into a false sense of being protected. They do not protect against viruses; they do not fit closely around the nose and mouth, the sides gape open. N95 or N100 is the way to go, but they are uncomfortable.

Death rate is 2%. Vast majority of whom are elderly or with compromised immune systems. Put differently 98% survive.

Going to a doctor is pretty much useless as there is no cure, at this point.

Those that do succumb do so from Acute Respiratory Failure. The NHS can only deal with 15 such cases as there are only 15 beds for adult extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) treatment at five centres across England.

 

Develop and maintain a healthy immune system, and be prudent.

 

Me? I'm happy enough with the pens/inks on hand. I do not NEED more. Especially at this point, considering the circumstances.


"Simplicate and add Lightness."


#31 Beechwood

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Posted 03 March 2020 - 16:36

There are no instances of children contracting this virus.

Whilst hand washing/sanitizing is a good idea, it offers no protection from airborne pathogens. Nitrile gloves, and thorough hand washing is best.

Surgical masks are worse than useless as a prophylactic, as it lulls one into a false sense of being protected. They do not protect against viruses; they do not fit closely around the nose and mouth, the sides gape open. N95 or N100 is the way to go, but they are uncomfortable.

Death rate is 2%. Vast majority of whom are elderly or with compromised immune systems. Put differently 98% survive.

Going to a doctor is pretty much useless as there is no cure, at this point.

Those that do succumb do so from Acute Respiratory Failure. The NHS can only deal with 15 such cases as there are only 15 beds for adult extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) treatment at five centres across England.

 

Develop and maintain a healthy immune system, and be prudent.

 

Me? I'm happy enough with the pens/inks on hand. I do not NEED more. Especially at this point, considering the circumstances.

 

 

0.9% of the people who have caught Covid 19 are under 10 years old

 

The most worrying statistic is 14% of those over 80 who have been infected have died.

 

I would not want to contract the disease at a pen show or elsewhere and bring it home to an elderly person. I would not want to contract the disease, becoiming infectious, in the two days before symptoms become apparant I may have passed the disease on to others, including children, who then spread the disease throughout their school.


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#32 Karmachanic

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Posted 03 March 2020 - 17:17

 

 

0.9% of the people who have caught Covid 19 are under 10 years old

 

Beechwood, could you please let me know the source. PM is fine. Thank you


"Simplicate and add Lightness."


#33 Beechwood

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Posted 03 March 2020 - 17:41

.The vast majority of cases in China — 87% — were in people ages 30 to 79, the China Center for Disease Control reported last month based on data from all 72,314 of those diagnosed with Covid-19 as of Feb. 11.

 

That probably reflects something about biology more than lifestyle, such as being in frequent contact with other people. Teens and people in their 20s also encounter many others, at school and work and on public transit, yet they don’t seem to be contracting the disease at significant rates: #

 

Only 8.1% of cases were 20-somethings, 1.2% were teens, and 0.9% were 9 or younger.

 

The World Health Organization mission to China found that 78% of the cases reported as of Feb. 20 were in people ages 30 to 69.


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#34 ColourFingers

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Posted 04 March 2020 - 21:08

I really wanted to go to the March Pen show as I've missed the last few years but I'll have to wait until October as I've just started a new job.

#35 Karmachanic

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Posted 04 March 2020 - 22:10

.The vast majority of cases in China — 87% — were in people ages 30 to 79, the China Center for Disease Control reported last month based on data from all 72,314 of those diagnosed with Covid-19 as of Feb. 11.

 

That probably reflects something about biology more than lifestyle, such as being in frequent contact with other people. Teens and people in their 20s also encounter many others, at school and work and on public transit, yet they don’t seem to be contracting the disease at significant rates: #

 

Only 8.1% of cases were 20-somethings, 1.2% were teens, and 0.9% were 9 or younger.

 

The World Health Organization mission to China found that 78% of the cases reported as of Feb. 20 were in people ages 30 to 69.

 

My understanding is that the doorway/receptor for the virus is ACE2  ( graphic bottom of page) enzyme in oral cavity. It is also my understanding that the death rate in China is higher in men than women. 68% of Chinese men are smokers and therefore have compromised immune systems.

 

Here's a different set of stats.


Edited by Karmachanic, 04 March 2020 - 22:11.

"Simplicate and add Lightness."


#36 dapprman

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Posted 06 March 2020 - 14:22

I've blogged my personal views (basically I'll be there, some vendors have dropped out, make your own judgement call - do not let people talk yo in or out of it)

 

Hopefully see some of you at Sophie's Pizzeria at ~12:30



#37 Beechwood

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Posted 06 March 2020 - 15:24

I have been at the London Shows since 2007 and I would hope the organisers can find some way of improving the faciilties so that people can wash their hands frequently. For example I dont recall any bathrooms on the same floor as the exhibtion area. The room was also hot and crowded and, of course, very full with limited space between the tables.

 

The Tokyo Pen Show has been cancelled due to Covid 19 concerns, I would hope that the decision to go ahead by the London Pen Show organisers is not one that they will regret. A government adviser on Covid 19 has said that in his expert opinion that it is likely that most of the UK population will contract the disease over the next 12 months and that the current measures to contain the disease are designed to push back any epidemnic to the warmer summer weather.

 

I will be there during the afternoon and hope that everyone who does attend will have an enjoyable and healthy show.


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#38 dapprman

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Posted 06 March 2020 - 15:46

I have been at the London Shows since 2007 and I would hope the organisers can find some way of improving the faciilties so that people can wash their hands frequently. For example I dont recall any bathrooms on the same floor as the exhibtion area. The room was also hot and crowded and, of course, very full with limited space between the tables.

The toilet (can't remember if it's just a mens there)  is in the first corridor of the show, about a third of the way along on the left where there's a gap - I seem to remember on one occasion you needed a room key card to use it though.  It's not enough for the show, nor for any reasonable sized event there - I do wonder if there's another I've previously missed.


Edited by dapprman, 06 March 2020 - 15:47.


#39 Beechwood

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Posted 06 March 2020 - 15:59

The toilet (can't remember if it's just a mens there)  is in the first corridor of the show, about a third of the way along on the left where there's a gap - I seem to remember on one occasion you needed a room key card to use it though.  It's not enough for the show, nor for any reasonable sized event there - I do wonder if there's another I've previously missed.

 

There is a loo up the spiral staircase past the WES reception, it may be out of bounds as it looks to be in a conference area, but WTH.


Edited by Beechwood, 06 March 2020 - 16:00.

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#40 sandy101

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Posted 06 March 2020 - 16:37

 

 

Hopefully see some of you at Sophie's Pizzeria at ~12:30

 

I'm looking forward to it. See you there.








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