Variations In Chinese Post Efficiency

[drathbun]

This is a bit of a tangent from the "What pen are you waiting for?" thread. I've kept track of all of my Chinese pen orders and the eBay sellers from which I've purchased them. Even from the same sellers, the time it takes China Post to deliver varies wildly. Which says to me either the sellers use different methods or outlets to ship or the China Post is hugely inefficient. I ordered my first Moonman M2 from "Elec-mall" and it arrived in a STUNNING NINE DAYS! When that same seller had the same pen on sale for even less, I jumped on it and ordered it. I've since made other pen orders on eBay which have arrived before this one. The second Moonman from the same seller is now 25 days. It is still within their blanket caveat of 13-47 days (47 days really?).

 

So what is the issue I wonder? Is it the seller? Bobby pens routinely come in 13 or 14 days well packed. Some other sellers routinely take a month or more. However, when the same seller sends the same pen and one takes a week and the other a month, I begin to wonder how much China Post mishandles their mail?

[Mr.Rene]

The same experience buying from Chinese Ebay Sellers..Regards from Chile.

[OCArt]

A few weeks ago I purchased several small items from Alliexpress. When I visit the store's website I see the tracking is not yet available. I speculate that they are using the "float" time to gain a bit of interest on my money or hold it for a slightly better exchange rate. A penny here, a penny there......

[drathbun]

A few weeks ago I purchased several small items from Alliexpress. When I visit the store's website I see the tracking is not yet available. I speculate that they are using the "float" time to gain a bit of interest on my money or hold it for a slightly better exchange rate. A penny here, a penny there......

 

I can see them doing that. In this specific case, I received the tracking information (which only goes as far as when it actually leaves China) within hours of making the sale.

 

I would rather spend a couple extra bucks for an item from Bobby pens (officesupply_pen), jewelrymathmatics, or jianlong123123 and get my product in around two weeks (and well packed) than wait the full month for a $4.00 pen. So now, if I find a product I like, I will search these sellers to see if they have it and spend the extra rather than taking a chance on waiting 47 days from chacewang or chaceexpo.

[Cyclohexene]

My last purchase from jewelrymathematics (dated July 2018) also took more than a month (about 5 to 6 weeks) to travel from China to Malaysia (not very far). A previous order of similar value (dated Jan 2018) took a mere 10 days to arrive, with better packaging and a working tracking number.

 

Looking at the tracking numbers, the slower order was UG**********CN, while the faster order was RH**********CN. From "http://parcelsapp.com/en/carriers/china-post", they refer to unregistered and registered airmail respectively, with obviously different shipping costs.

 

So long story short, there are different grades of delivery methods a Chinese seller could use, with different levels of attention and urgency given to it. The same seller could choose to save cost by downgrading their delivery as well, and eBay doesn't really give you the information until you receive the tracking number, unless you actively ask the seller about it.

[Driften]

I'm still waiting on an eBay buy from Bobby that was sent via SpeedPAK. I ordered Feb 24th and it's past the March 18th delivery by date now. I hate SpeedPAK...

[drathbun]

I'm still waiting on an eBay buy from Bobby that was sent via SpeedPAK. I ordered Feb 24th and it's past the March 18th delivery by date now. I hate SpeedPAK...

 

I find this intriguing just from the standpoint of how variable it is. Is it random? Is Bobby selecting certain customers that will get faster service? It seems like every order might go into three or four different bins for "free" delivery 1. Fast track (9 days) 2. Okay track 3 (14 days). Slow boat from Shanghai (47 days) , and you have a 33.3% chance of each. So far, I've only received top-bin service from Bobby Pen.

[miwishi63]

This information in this thread is most helpful - and highly enabling! Two Wing Sung 3008 with EF Nibs on the way from China...

[Driften]

 

I find this intriguing just from the standpoint of how variable it is. Is it random? Is Bobby selecting certain customers that will get faster service? It seems like every order might go into three or four different bins for "free" delivery 1. Fast track (9 days) 2. Okay track 3 (14 days). Slow boat from Shanghai (47 days) , and you have a 33.3% chance of each. So far, I've only received top-bin service from Bobby Pen.

 

 

I sent Bobby a message though eBay and he is going to get me the usps tracking number from SpeedPAK and he says it's eBay's request he use SpeedPAK. I know eBay made a deal with SpeedPAK from searching the web when I was looking for more info.

 

I did place an order from Bobby for 601 nibs though Etsy on the 20th and it still hasn't shipped. But it's only one day so I will give him a break. I'm hoping his Etsy orders are sent some other way then SpeedPAK.

 

I ordered another Wing Sung 601 from Czxwyst via Amazon and got it in two days via prime shipping. I wish I had ordered the demonstrator that way I would have had it weeks ago...

Edited March 21, 2019 by Driften

[txomsy]

And do not forget China is a big country.

 

Sending from different parts may take longer if it has to go through more intermediate hubs.

[Driften]

Follow up on my SpeedPAK shipment from Bobby. I asked him for the USPS tracking to go with the SpeedPAK number and I found my pen has been taking the ground route from NY to me in Seattle. It just left Sparks Nevada yesterday. At least now I know it wasn't lost somewhere.

[drathbun]

And do not forget China is a big country.

 

Sending from different parts may take longer if it has to go through more intermediate hubs.

 

That's a good point to remember, txomsy. However, when the times vary by as much as three weeks from the very same vendor in the very same place for the very same product, I have to look for the reasons elsewhere. It might come down to something that isn't even China related. For example, perhaps the time differences are a result of my country's customs processes. My shipment might have breezed through Canadian Customs one time but my current shipment might be languishing in a pile in Vancouver for two weeks.

[drathbun]

Follow up on my SpeedPAK shipment from Bobby. I asked him for the USPS tracking to go with the SpeedPAK number and I found my pen has been taking the ground route from NY to me in Seattle. It just left Sparks Nevada yesterday. At least now I know it wasn't lost somewhere.

 

Let me get this straight. A package from China, went to NY and then by ground to Seattle? Why would something destined for the west coast go 3500 miles further west and then track back by truck 3500 miles west again? My head is spinning.

[Driften]

 

Let me get this straight. A package from China, went to NY and then by ground to Seattle? Why would something destined for the west coast go 3500 miles further west and then track back by truck 3500 miles west again? My head is spinning.

 

 

I know! It's crazy. But what I think SpeedPAK does to save money is the ship a crate of packages to a remailer in the US who then gives them to USPS. It's not the first time I've seen something come in to NY via air and then come west. At least normal stuff I have gotten from England normally land in California and then it's just a couple of days up the coast to Washington.

[Driften]

I got the shipment from Bobby today of my Wing Sung 601. Everything was over packed and great. SpeedPAK took a total of 35 days from when they got the package to get it to me. I ordered 601 nibs from Bobby via Etsy and that was shipped from Yanwen. It will be interesting to see how long that takes in comparison.

 

I do have a Moonman 80 from eBay shipped again with SpeedPAK on the 20th. It will also be interesting to see how it goes, but expect it will also come though Inglewood NY.

 

My Etsy PenBBS orders have all been fast and come in though the proper side of the country... I can't remember who they use for sending. It's not free shipping but well worth the $6 to get things done right...

Edited March 23, 2019 by Driften

[bobje]

Here’s another point to remember. The entire purchase of a pen often costs less than $6, shipped. That alone is domestic shipping fee for most US retailers.

[txomsy]

A few points:

 

China is huge (in size and people): there may be many hubs.

 

Random controls: if you ever traveled abroad you know that -specially at some crossings- there are random in-depth checks to detect smuggling/dangerous goods. Random in-depth controls may happen at random hubs in the path at the post office. I've had "silly-parcels/letters" held at the customs office for as much as two weeks. I have one parcel from US (just a few nibs) currently held at customs for over one -close to two- weeks now.

 

Economy of scale: most of us like to think of the "best" path as the fastest, shortest one. At current prices and scale of operations, that does not make any business sense. It'd be suicidal indeed. If you have to send something and there is room left on a plane, and the company offers it as a bargain to fleet the plane full, you use that. If there is not room on planes but there is on train, bus, trucks, you use that. If there is a boat that can take it dirty cheap, you prefer it. And that's it. As long as it is not lost and the customer gets it delivered in a reasonable (for the price) time, the cheapest method is what counts, not other efficiency metrics, like its speed, trajectory of number of hubs. Ever reserved a flight? If you ask for combined flights you may be offered many alternative routes, some very cheap but crazy. No surprise if something goes HK to NY to LA.

 

I've had tracked parcel from the US spending a lot of time at local hubs, or taking road routes to the next hub until they reached a city with airport. I've had some parcels delivered from China in less than a week at no cost (guess they were lucky in finding an empty place on a quick delivery) and parcels from EU delivered (within EU) in one or two months because of a combination of crazy routes/border checks (sometimes as many as two or three in the same country).

 

I once was looking for a flight between capitals in two continents. It was cheaper to fly to a different capital in the same continent, back to the original one and then from the origin to destination than from the origin to destination diretly. Condition was that I could not skip the flight from origin to intermediate and back to origin if I wanted the cheap price. Go figure.

 

The human factor: we all make mistakes. I'm being partial here (or broadly generic). A bad management decision may lead to non-sticky tracking stickers and lost parcels. A sleepy handler may misplace a parcel (ever had your luggage mis-routed in a flight? It still happens). A careless person may drop or break a parcel. Someone may forget a procedure or misspell something, lose a parcel. A careless one may load badly a parcel and it may be dropped and lost during carriage. And, yes, even a greedy one may pick a parcel for his own interest and get it out of the system.

 

I recently ordered a $3 item with free postage and surprisingly got a tracking number... it was detained in a couple of sites, then it went somewhere else in Asia and bounced back between two post offices a few times, then it went twice through customs, and finally departed that hub and arrived one week later.

 

Traffic congestion happens. Surprisingly contradictorily. There are periods with very low traffic, and then finding an empty, quick spot may be easy. There are periods with intermediate traffic when fast routes tend to be full and the likelihood your parcel is delivered quickly is lower. And there are periods of very high traffic (like X-mas) when you'd expect a parcel to take forever as the delivery systems saturate but instead, since there are also many more human flights, it surprisingly takes less than any other time of the year. It may also affect intermediate hubs as the personnel gets overloaded and processing takes longer... Holidays are not the same in all the World.

 

Combine all of this, and sometimes you will be lucky and get it in a couple of days, most of the time it will be random and take one-two weeks, sometimes you will be unlucky and the parcel will be held, bounce, delivered by horse-cart or reindeer sleigh, and undergo an in-depth customs check and take one-two months, and occasionally it may be undelivered or lost in transit. In my experience, it makes sense most of the time.

 

I hope this makes it clear enough. I know it's easy to look for someone to blame and to blame it on bad intentions. Remember Hanlon's razor: People are usually more incompetent than evil.

 

I wonder how many orders must one process at 2-10$ each so that holding them for 1 week will make a significant difference in bank interests.

 

This is not to say there may not be evil sellers around or thta it does not happen. But I personally find all this discussion surrealistic. I think there are reasons enough to explain differences in delivery times from the same seller.

Edited March 24, 2019 by txomsy

[JollyCynic]

Essentially (but not literally all) the variation in shipping times to me in the UK has been how long the items sit in customs, depending on the thoroughness of the checks or how busy they are.

[drathbun]

A few points:

 

China is huge (in size and people): there may be many hubs.

 

Random controls: if you ever traveled abroad you know that -specially at some crossings- there are random in-depth checks to detect smuggling/dangerous goods. Random in-depth controls may happen at random hubs in the path at the post office. I've had "silly-parcels/letters" held at the customs office for as much as two weeks. I have one parcel from US (just a few nibs) currently held at customs for over one -close to two- weeks now.

 

Economy of scale: most of us like to think of the "best" path as the fastest, shortest one. At current prices and scale of operations, that does not make any business sense. It'd be suicidal indeed. If you have to send something and there is room left on a plane, and the company offers it as a bargain to fleet the plane full, you use that. If there is not room on planes but there is on train, bus, trucks, you use that. If there is a boat that can take it dirty cheap, you prefer it. And that's it. As long as it is not lost and the customer gets it delivered in a reasonable (for the price) time, the cheapest method is what counts, not other efficiency metrics, like its speed, trajectory of number of hubs. Ever reserved a flight? If you ask for combined flights you may be offered many alternative routes, some very cheap but crazy. No surprise if something goes HK to NY to LA.

 

I've had tracked parcel from the US spending a lot of time at local hubs, or taking road routes to the next hub until they reached a city with airport. I've had some parcels delivered from China in less than a week at no cost (guess they were lucky in finding an empty place on a quick delivery) and parcels from EU delivered (within EU) in one or two months because of a combination of crazy routes/border checks (sometimes as many as two or three in the same country).

 

I once was looking for a flight between capitals in two continents. It was cheaper to fly to a different capital in the same continent, back to the original one and then from the origin to destination than from the origin to destination diretly. Condition was that I could not skip the flight from origin to intermediate and back to origin if I wanted the cheap price. Go figure.

 

The human factor: we all make mistakes. I'm being partial here (or broadly generic). A bad management decision may lead to non-sticky tracking stickers and lost parcels. A sleepy handler may misplace a parcel (ever had your luggage mis-routed in a flight? It still happens). A careless person may drop or break a parcel. Someone may forget a procedure or misspell something, lose a parcel. A careless one may load badly a parcel and it may be dropped and lost during carriage. And, yes, even a greedy one may pick a parcel for his own interest and get it out of the system.

 

I recently ordered a $3 item with free postage and surprisingly got a tracking number... it was detained in a couple of sites, then it went somewhere else in Asia and bounced back between two post offices a few times, then it went twice through customs, and finally departed that hub and arrived one week later.

 

Traffic congestion happens. Surprisingly contradictorily. There are periods with very low traffic, and then finding an empty, quick spot may be easy. There are periods with intermediate traffic when fast routes tend to be full and the likelihood your parcel is delivered quickly is lower. And there are periods of very high traffic (like X-mas) when you'd expect a parcel to take forever as the delivery systems saturate but instead, since there are also many more human flights, it surprisingly takes less than any other time of the year. It may also affect intermediate hubs as the personnel gets overloaded and processing takes longer... Holidays are not the same in all the World.

 

Combine all of this, and sometimes you will be lucky and get it in a couple of days, most of the time it will be random and take one-two weeks, sometimes you will be unlucky and the parcel will be held, bounce, delivered by horse-cart or reindeer sleigh, and undergo an in-depth customs check and take one-two months, and occasionally it may be undelivered or lost in transit. In my experience, it makes sense most of the time.

 

I hope this makes it clear enough. I know it's easy to look for someone to blame and to blame it on bad intentions. Remember Hanlon's razor: People are usually more incompetent than evil.

 

I wonder how many orders must one process at 2-10$ each so that holding them for 1 week will make a significant difference in bank interests.

 

This is not to say there may not be evil sellers around or thta it does not happen. But I personally find all this discussion surrealistic. I think there are reasons enough to explain differences in delivery times from the same seller.

 

This is an excellent analysis txomsy! Thank you so much for your detailed overview of the elements that explain most of the variations in delivery.

[miwishi63]

Given the incredibly low prices on pens ordered from China I don't mind waiting awhile to receive my package. That being said, I also tend to only order items from Amazon that will arrive in two days...