How Many Years Before Parker 51S Get Truly Scarce?

[Arstook]

As a lover of vintage Parker 51s, a topic that continues to haunt my dreams is a question of how long it will be before Parker 51s become truly scarce and the prices go sharply vertical? I know this is an impossible question to answer with any great accuracy, but was interested in asking it for the sake of discussion. Considering that Parker made at least 12 million plus of the 51s (Richard Binder's website speculates anywhere between 12 to 50 million were made), and a large portion of them broke, got thrown away, sank to the bottom of the ocean, or are moldering away in attics somewhere, and another large portion of them have been hoarded by collectors, how many years do you guys give it for the Parker 51 vintage market to stay elastic?

 

Other factors to consider are that collectors will probably continue to resell their pens, fountain pen repairers will continue to bring a certain number of pens back into the market via restoration and new parts, and that demand for them might rise in the future due to the scarcity/nostalgia factor.

Edited March 4, 2018 by Arstook

[pajaro]

In a couple of years of manufacture, I think 48 and 49, but maybe others also, about 8 million were made. From figures I saw on one website. So, the 50 million total is probably right. I am down to about 20. When I kick the bucket they will all go on ebay. Same with many other collectors. These pens will be cycled over and over. It is fortunate that Parker made so many, that there was enough demand eo drive that production. It is still the best and most reliable pen I have ever used. Montblancs and Pelikans are almost as good, but their reliability is on a lesser plane. Everything is on a lesser plane than the 51.

[JotterAddict62]

With all of the 51 pen parts I saw back in Oct. & Nov. 2016 at an auction in Janesville WI. there were plenty of parts to

make 1,000 NOS pens with the parts. There was a bag of 51 nibs [ 400 ] that sold at the Nov. auction.

http://i48.photobucket.com/albums/f239/Jotteraddict62/033_zpsaxcbngf7.jpg

This is what I picked up that day back in Nov. 2016 and most of the Vac's were so clean you could not see where the blind cap and barrel met.

 

There is still plenty of pens and pen parts out there for the P51.

 

I'm hoping for a good auction season this year as 2017 was the slowest since I have been collecting [ 2008 ]

 

Ken

 

P.S. to the OP Links to the auctions that were mentioned.

 

https://www.fountainpennetwork.com/forum/topic/313908-parker-pen-auction-report-for-10-8-16/?hl=%2Bparker+%2Bpen+%2Bauction+%2Breport

 

https://www.fountainpennetwork.com/forum/topic/315358-parker-pen-auction-report-for-11-20-16/?hl=%2Bparker+%2Bpen+%2Bauction+%2Breport

[inkstainedruth]

I stopped at an antiques mall in Hagerstown, MD yesterday, on the way home from the Baltimore Pen Show. Saw a black 51 (don't recall if it was an Aero or a 51 Vac) and a dark green 51 pen/pencil set. So they're definitely still out there. And those are still there -- I didn't need another black 51 and the set was priced at more than I was willing to pay.

And a couple of years ago I found a Cedar Blue 51 Vac with a gold-filled cap in the wild at a little place outside Fairmont West Virginia (that one I DID buy... ).

Ruth Morrisson aka inkstainedruth

[Methersgate]

Picked up a rolled gold and black Aerometric, in its case, all remarkably crisp, from the wild today, and had change from £40. And that was in England, the home of the Newhaven Duofold (OK, I got three of those, too..) where the 51 was always an expensive pen.

 

Antiques dealers and car boot sellers check eBay for their pricing, so prices flatten out.

Edited March 4, 2018 by Methersgate

[FarmBoy]

I resemble that pile!

[sherbie]

I,ve only been collection since 2008, but i’ve seen prices rise for Parker 51s during that time. Back then i could pick up working aeros for £20-30 in antique centres - now prices range from £40-70. Again! Condition is everything, and collectors will pay a lot for NOS pens

 

Ebay prices have also risen, and if you get 2 or more biders really wanting the same pen, then some astounding prices can be seen for somewhat ordinary pens

 

The fact that i’ve managed to pick up over 130 P51s during that time, tells me that there is going to be enough to go around for some time to come yet

[richardandtracy]

Yeah, prices are going up.

But so are all FP prices. Look at the new ones, they are inflating even faster than vintage. I got my new P&B Centennial for £154 in 2010, now look at the price of the cheapest new Centennial, lucky to get one (regardless of colour) under £300.

 

Regards,

 

Richard.

[mitto]

Yes, price are vitnedsing significant increase. Almost 25-50 %.

[Florida Blue]

Personally, I don't think 51s will ever become scarce in our lifetimes. Millions were made, they are very durable pens, and hundreds are probably found in the wild each year and sold off to collectors or dealers who will have them refurbished.

 

I own 13 51s, which compared to many forum members is small potatoes, but all but 2 were found in the wild since I started collecting in about 2009. The most I've paid for a 51 in the wild was $40 and the least $2, which was actually last year at a flea market.

 

In general, 51s are not scarce. However, there are some truly scarce 51s that were produced in small numbers (Nassau green, Buckskin beige, 14kt gold caps in any design, 1st years, red band fillers, prototypes etc.). However, those have always been scarce since collectors started looking for them 40 years ago, because so few were made to begin with.

[Methersgate]

I know of a 51 which has not even entered the desk drawer yet. It is the everyday pen of a colleague who was given it on his 21st birthday, forty odd years ago. It has never been serviced, just refilled with Quink and occasionally flushed with water.

[Zaphodbebullbrox]

As a lover of vintage Parker 51s, a topic that continues to haunt my dreams is a question of how long it will be before Parker 51s become truly scarce and the prices go sharply vertical? I know this is an impossible question to answer with any great accuracy, but was interested in asking it for the sake of discussion. Considering that Parker made at least 12 million plus of the 51s (Richard Binder's website speculates anywhere between 12 to 50 million were made), and a large portion of them broke, got thrown away, sank to the bottom of the ocean, or are moldering away in attics somewhere, and another large portion of them have been hoarded by collectors, how many years do you guys give it for the Parker 51 vintage market to stay elastic?

 

Other factors to consider are that collectors will probably continue to resell their pens, fountain pen repairers will continue to bring a certain number of pens back into the market via restoration and new parts, and that demand for them might rise in the future due to the scarcity/nostalgia factor.

 

you will most likely become scarce before they will.

 

in other words, life is too short, buy the pen you want today so you can enjoy it before for as long as you can.

[honza]

how long it will be before Parker 51s become truly scarce and the prices go sharply vertical?

 

As somebody whose only realistic source of P51s is EBay (and then only those sellers willing to ship internationally) I have seen a significant price increase already in the few years since I've got the FP bug. It is not "sharply vertical", but compared to, e.g., 5 years ago the prices increased significantly.

[Arstook]

 

you will most likely become scarce before they will.

 

in other words, life is too short, buy the pen you want today so you can enjoy it before for as long as you can.

Wise words, thank you. Reminds me to not treat pens like they need to be hidden away under cellophane.

[Arstook]

With all of the 51 pen parts I saw back in Oct. & Nov. 2016 at an auction in Janesville WI. there were plenty of parts to

make 1,000 NOS pens with the parts. There was a bag of 51 nibs [ 400 ] that sold at the Nov. auction.

http://i48.photobucket.com/albums/f239/Jotteraddict62/033_zpsaxcbngf7.jpg

This is what I picked up that day back in Nov. 2016 and most of the Vac's were so clean you could not see where the blind cap and barrel met.

 

There is still plenty of pens and pen parts out there for the P51.

 

I'm hoping for a good auction season this year as 2017 was the slowest since I have been collecting [ 2008 ]

 

Ken

 

P.S. to the OP Links to the auctions that were mentioned.

 

https://www.fountainpennetwork.com/forum/topic/313908-parker-pen-auction-report-for-10-8-16/?hl=%2Bparker+%2Bpen+%2Bauction+%2Breport

 

https://www.fountainpennetwork.com/forum/topic/315358-parker-pen-auction-report-for-11-20-16/?hl=%2Bparker+%2Bpen+%2Bauction+%2Breport

These photos made me drool. Did any buyers with a healthy online presence pick up any of these NOS 51 parts? I might be interested in making some purchases. :-)

[JotterAddict62]

These photos made me drool. Did any buyers with a healthy online presence pick up any of these NOS 51 parts? I might be interested in making some purchases. :-)

I sold that pile to Farmboy within a week.[ except the coco demi areo on the bottom left. ][ I doubt he has any left after a year ? ] fivestarpens.com was there that day he was buying & buying & buying.

[mitto]

Every thing Ken buys goes to F.Boy.

[JotterAddict62]

Every thing Ken buys goes to F.Boy.

Only if I need money....

[mitto]

Yea, F.Boy has lot of money.