First my request, then some background.
I am asking you please to post, for each vintage Aurora 88 / 88K / 88P that you own,
- the model and the serial number
- if it is an unserialised 88P, please state that.
- if you have documentary evidence of it, the year of manufacture / sale (not a seller's opinion please).
I have collected quite a few models and serials from FPN, fleabay and my own few pens, and have compared this with the information in the Aurora 88 Dynasty and other threads. Now, I am seeking more data to improve upon it.
I have concluded from looking at existing pens that the serial number offers a useable source for dating the pens. It appears that they were applied as would be expected to each successive pen, regardless of model. The lowest serial I have found to date is under 47000, so we know that they did not kick off the process somewhere in the hundred thousands.
From the Dynasty thread, one would expect to see 88 and 88K serials intermingled for the period 1951 to 1953, and this happens. One would also expect from that source to see no overlap between the 88K and 88P and so far this too is the case.
However, based on total production information in the Dynasty, taking that as cumulative, one would expect a serial in the 2.5 M range to appear only on an 88K, but it appears on an 88 which ceased production in 1953. That implies that either fewer 88P were later produced to stay within 3.8 M total, or else more than 3.8 M were later produced if the inferred 1.3 M 88P were made. An alternative that practically no 88K were produced during 1954-57 seems unlikely!
However, no 88P so far has a serial as high as 3.3 M, far from 3.8 M. Casual reading also suggests there are more unserialised 88P around than the small number expected (I have one myself). This may account for the gap, if serialising ceased around 1961.
For these reasons I am asking for the above data to try to fill in some gaps.
I am already close to having a fairly good translation from serial to year, to counter optimistic sellers and simply for one's own entertainment. To do this I am obliged to make an assumption about non-linear production patterns in which production for each model ramps up quickly in year 0-1, plateaus around 2-4 years and declines in years 5-7. These mild curves are assumed but appear to give better results on known data than assuming flat production rates.
edit:minor and formatting
Edited by praxim, 02 April 2017 - 05:29.